Theory-Based Evaluation

The Theory-Based Evaluation (TBE) is a flexible assessment approach that allows the evaluation of public policy interventions at different stages of implementation, both during and after the implementation of interventions. Although it is not possible to assess the net impact of selected public policy interventions on the basis of TBE, this method can be used to explain their results and, in this context, improve the analysis of public policy interventions in the future. The TBE application is based on the theory of change - a flexible model for causing relationships between variables that defines the sequence of actions required to achieve the ultimate goal. BGI Consulting is actively applying this approach to different types of public policy evaluations in various fields, both mid-term (in medias res) and final (ex-post).

 

In mid-term evaluations, when the analysed implementation of public policy interventions is not over and their results are not yet visible, TBE is used to assess the appropriateness of intervention logic. In this case, this method helps to assess the potential impact of analysed public policy interventions in answering the question "Is it possible to theoretically achieve the goal by the interventions analysed?". The TBE method has been used, for example, in assessing the potential impact of 12 public policy programs on "Assessment of the Implementation of the European Economic Area (EEA) and Norwegian Financial Mechanisms 2009-2014" (commissioned by the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Lithuania, 2016).

 

In the final evaluations, when the implementation of the analysed public policy interventions is over, TBE is used to assess the contribution of interventions to the set goal in response to the question "Have the analysed interventions contributed to the observed changes?". The TBE method has been applied, for example, in assessing the contribution of interventions to reducing early school leaving in the „Evaluation of the impact of the European Union structural assistance on human resources development“ (customer - Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Lithuania, 2014-2015) and in assessing the effectiveness of the model for promoting gender equality in the „Evaluation of the effectiveness, efficiency and impact of gender equality training and proactive actions organised in the implementation of the measures of Priority I of the Human Resources Development Operational Program for 2007-2013“ (the customer is the Ministry of Social Security and Labor of the Republic of Lithuania, 2015-2016).