March, 2021 – January, 2022, BGI Consulting carried out the Impact assessment of EU investments on the main macroeconomic indicators and economic sectors in Lithuania. The evaluation was commissioned by the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Lithuania.

 

The purpose of the assessment was to determine the projected impact of the 2014-2020 and 2021-2027 EU investments on Lithuania's macroeconomic indicators, individual public policy areas and economic sectors.  In order to achieve this purpose, three tasks were implemented: 1) the impact of the 2014-2020 EU investments on Lithuania‘s economy has been assessed, by determining the changes in macroeconomic indicators as a result of the EU funds (impact on gross domestic product (GDP), employment level, unemployment rate, etc.);  2) the impact of the 2014-2020 EU investments on public policy areas (taking into account the priorities of the 2014-2020 Operational Programme  (2014–2020 OP)) and economic sectors has been assessed, by analyzing in detail at least 2 economic areas (construction sector; employment and labor market); 3)  the impact of the planned 2021-2027 EU investments at the national level, as well as by public policy areas and economic sectors has been assessed, by determining the changes in macroeconomic indicators as a result of the EU funds (impact on GDP, employment level, unemployment rate, etc.) (including detailed analysis of the construction sector)).The evaluation includes elements of ex-post evaluation when the impact of already implemented (part of the EU investment 2014-2020) is determined, as well as elements of ex-ante evaluation when the expected impact of the planned implementation (part of the EU investment in 2014–2020 and EU investment in 2021–2027) is determined.

 

The scope of the assessment consists of three investment packages: 1) EU investments of the programming period 2014-2020 (volume - 7.3 billion EUR); 2) REACT-EU investments implemented in accordance with the priorities 13 and 14 of the 2014–2020 OP (volume - 273.7 million EUR); 3)  planned EU investments of the programming period 2021-2027 (volume - 6.2 billion EUR). The assessment was carried out on the basis of impact, investment efficiency and investment sustainability criteria.

 

Sophisticated assessment methods were used during the evaluation, such as macroeconomic modeling and counterfactual impact assessment. The method of macroeconomic modeling (applied HERLIT model belonging to the family of HERMIN models developed by the EC and adapted to the Lithuanian context) was used to assess the impact of EU investments in 2014–2020 and the expected impact of planned EU investments in 2021–2027 on Lithuania's key macroeconomic indicators (GDP and its components, employment, wages, etc.). In addition, the impact of investments in individual public policy areas (PPAs), the impact on individual economic sectors and regions of the country (Capital and Central and Western Lithuania), and the efficiency and sustainability of investments were assessed. The counterfactual impact assessment method was used to analyse the impact of 5 active labor market policy (ALMP) projects financed by EU funds on the employment and wage levels of the participants of these projects in 2014–2020. The impact of EU investments in the construction sector in 2014–2020 is analyzed in additional detail. Additionally, various evaluation methods were used during the evaluation: document analysis, analysis of secondary sources, analysis of monitoring data and statistical data, semi-structured interviews,  meta-analysis, expert evaluation.

 

The impact assessment results are available here.

 

This evaluation is co-financed by the European Social Fund and the Republic of Lithuania in accordance with the 2014-2020 Operational Programme for the European Union Funds Investment in Lithuania, Priority Axis 12 “Technical Assistance for Information and Evaluation of the Operational Program”.