First methodology on forecasting a demand of qualifications in Lithuania’s labour market

BGI Consulting jointly with partners from Sweden and Finland created a methodology for medium term forecasting of qualifications’ demand in Lithuania labour market and provided forecasts for 2008 – 2012.
Involvement of partners ensured transferring the best practice of advanced countries in the field of labour market and forecasting future need of qualifications. Particularly experience and methodologies used by Swedish, Finnish and Dutch policy makers and experts were analysed.

Aiming to minimize the disadvantages of each method and to utilize the advantages, three methods are combined: econometric modeling, companies’ survey and opinion of sectorial experts., three different methods were combined: econometric modeling, companies’ survey and analysis of branch experts.

Forecasting methodology developed by BGI Consulting was also adapted for practical use by creating IT application designated for hands-on forecasting. The appliance of forecasting model allows implementing practical forecasting for the needs of labour market and education system policy.

The research carried out by BGI Consulting also encompassed feasibility study on administrating and practicing the forecasting results.

A practical result achieved by the research is demand of qualifications in the period 2008 – 2012, which is firstly determined by economic growth (expansion demand) and secondly by natural turnover of the labour market (replacement demand).

It should be mentioned that such comprehensive forecast of demand of qualifications for the whole country is implemented for the first time in Lithuania. Labour market is disaggregated into 28 economy sectors and 70 profession groups. That allows modeling whole labour market as such and simultaneously forecast trends of qualifications’ demand in the future.

The research has been commissioned to BGI Consulting by the Lithuanian Labour Exchange at the Ministry of Social Security and Labour.