BGI Consulting has done the study which would be used when preparing the Blueprint for forecasting demand of work force and competences within sectors for the years 2011-2016 and considering how the public policy should be formed for the forecasting and fulfil the demand of the skilled work force and competences.
The previous studies of the forecasting of the labour market and education systems (17 studies in all) carried out in the years 2006-2010 were analysed. Summing up the conclusions, it can be stated that studies’ focus on the decision support function is not enough. The results of the studies are not consequent enough, abstract and do not focus on the needs of the contracting authorities and target groups.
The forecasting methods applied in the studies carried out in recent years in Lithuania and foreign countries were analysed. A conclusion can be drawn that combination of the different forecasting methods (econometric modelling, employee’s survey, etc.) allows diminishing the drawbacks of separate methods and to use the advantages. It is essential to apply different forecasting methods and data sources.
Recommended consequent and institutionally coordinated system of the preparation of the Blueprint for forecasting demand of work force and competences when the results of one stage are applied in the next stages:
(1) the forecast of macroeconomics indicators which reflect possible development and the forecast of the quantity of persons employed;
(2) the forecast of the quantity of persons employed among sectors;
(3) the forecast of the labour market demand by the groups of occupations and other criteria;
(4) the retrospective analysis and forecast of the labour market supply;
(5) the matchmaking of the labour market demand and supply in order to identify net demand of the labour market;
(6) the analysis of the quantitative parameters of the demand/supply of the labour market and forecasting by sectors, groups of occupations and/or education (qualifications and competences).
An essential prerequisite is to implement all the steps of the forecasting systems consequently and the results of each step should be applied in the following stage of the forecasting systems.
The results of the forecasts in the process of the decision making should be combined with the other sources and methods. When applying the forecasts it should be understood that the results are not deterministic and are only possible/likely future scenario.
The study was commissioned by Ministry of Education and Science of Lithuania.